Adobe Digital Insights just released its 2019 online Holiday shopping recap.From record breaking shopping days, to the battle between big and small retailers, this report has it all.
2. The industry’s most comprehensive report
Data via Adobe Analytics (aggregated, anonymized)
• AI and machine learning (Adobe Sensei) used to identify retail insights
Measures trillions of visits to U.S. retail sites (most in the industry)
• 55 million unique products
• Transaction data features 80 of top 100 US web retailers*
• Companion survey: 1K+ U.S. consumers in Oct. 2019
• Covers retailers of all sizes (via Magento Commerce, 50+ merch categories)
*Per Internet Retailer 2018 eGuide
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Analytics Cloud
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Advertising Cloud
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Commerce Cloud
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Methodology
3. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Key Findings
1. Record holiday season: online spend totaled $142.5B, up 13.1% YoY
2. Avg daily online revenue exceeded $2.3B across the holiday season, up from $2.1B last year
(13% YoY growth)
3. BOPIS grew 35% YoY; in-store once again provides consumers more options in the last
week before Christmas
4. Smartphones accounted for 84% of last holiday season’s ecommerce growth
5. The holiday season can lift sales by 200% during the major holiday shopping weekend
(Thanksgiving – CM)
5. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Online Holiday Shopping Season Reached $142.5 Billion, 13.1% Growth
Methodology
* The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 3.8% and 4.2%
**The NRF Estimates ~$730B in total holiday spending this year, online and offline.
• Online holiday shopping (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. was
$142.5B in 2019, 13.1% more than 2018
• Online revenue growth during holiday continues to outpace
overall retail growth (13.1% online vs. 4.0% overall*).
• Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday accounted for $1 in $5 (20%) of
total online retail revenue.
6. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
5-Day Weekend* And Early Shopping Drove Season Growth
• Record Breaking Sales Online by Day:
Thanksgiving - $4.2B (+14%)
Black Friday - $7.4B (+20%)
Cyber Monday - $9.4B (+20%)
• The week before Thanksgiving experienced strong growth as deals started earlier
• Wednesday before Thanksgiving continues to rival the previous Small Business Saturday ($2.9B vs. $3.0B) Note: 5 days from Thanksgiving thru Cyber Monday.
7 days before
Thanksgiving +26% YoY
Cyber Weekend sales
+18% YoY
7. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Daily Online Sales Averaged $2.3B Across the Season
• Holiday season averaged $2.3B per day, up 13% YoY ($2.1B)
• Every day exceeded $1B in online sales except for Christmas Eve ($850M)
• 29 $2B days (26 in 2018) and 8 $3B days, (5 in 2018)
• $100B mark hit 6 days earlier: Dec 9 vs. Dec. 15 (in 2018)
8. Online Sales topped $1.1B this year on Christmas day
• Only Christmas Eve failed to reach $1B daily sales, tallying $850M
Consumers used their smartphones to help Christmas
Day break the barrier
• 67% of all visits & 48% of all revenue came from smartphones, up
15% and 34% respectively
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Christmas Day Exceeds $1B for First Time
9. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Consumers Continue to Shift Their Shopping Habits to Smartphones
• Over $50B spent on smartphones this holiday for the first time
• Smartphone share of visits up 14% YoY to 58% from 51%
• Revenue from smartphones was 36% of season totals
36%
Share of revenue
from smartphones
58%
Share of visits
from smartphones
10. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Smartphones Drove Nearly All Growth this Holiday Season
Online sales from smartphones grew 37% YoY vs. 8% for Desktops
• $13.8B or 84% of the $16.4B growth seen this year came from smartphones
Smartphones More of An Information Tool than Buying One
• Completing the buying process lags desktop metrics; 3.0 vs. 5.9 checkouts per
100 visits
Higher cart abandonment: 50% vs. 33% 37% vs. 8%
YoY growth in online sales by device
Smartphone vs. Desktop
* NRF estimates of retail sales and e-commerce.
84%
Percent of 2019 Online Holiday
Season growth coming from
smartphones
11. HOLIDAY RECAP | DAILY DEEP DIVES | 2019
Spike in BOPIS In the Run up To Christmas
• BOPIS revenue up 35% YoY for the season
• BOPIS revenue increases 55% over the season avg in the 7 days
leading up to Christmas as consumers do last min. shopping
• Retailers need to up-sell-in-store
BOPIS baskets tend to contain few items (2.4 vs 2.9 units)
Comprising of less expensive items ($46 vs. $54)
Glossary
†Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations.
12. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2019
Ecommerce Giants Benefit More from the Holidays Than Smaller Retailers
• The holiday season can easily lift sales by 40% or more over
the baseline period of October and 200% during the holiday
weekend
• Greater increase in revenue during holiday season vs normal
than in 2018
Holiday Season 2018: +65% for large retailers and + 35% for smaller
ones.
13. HOLIDAY RECAP | ONLINE SPEND RESULTS | 2019
Holiday Sales Spiked on Key Days then Continued to Rise Until Dec 16th
Online sales trend matched expectations of how consumers shop
during the Holiday.
• Consumers spent an average of 28% more per day during the three-
weeks after Cyber Monday than the first three weeks of the season.
• Sales continued to grow until the Monday 8-days out from Christmas
• The rising revenue is due to a steady increase in conversion until Dec.
16th; order value decreases 14% from beginning of season to the end
13
14. HOLIDAY RECAP | ONLINE SPEND RESULTS | 2019
Prices Bottomed Out on Sunday After Black Friday, Then Rose Slightly
Holiday Weekend begins the best time to get good deals..
• Toy discounts returned to more normal levels this year; discount of 17% vs. 31% last year.
• Televisions showed similar discounts the last two years; a bit more than in 2017
• Computers actually saw a small (10%) rise in early October before a steady decrease ahead of Cyber
Monday
Discount from 1 Oct
to Cyber Monday
14
2019 2018 2017
TVs -19% -18% -14%
Computers -18% -19% -21%
Toys -17% -31% -19%
15. 15
50 inch range most common size and
at $415 they’re less than half of US
median rent for 2-bdrm apt ($1,180)
80s
HOLIDAY RECAP | ONLINE SPEND RESULTS | 2019
Television Sales Focused on Upgrading Size
30s
40s
50s
60s
70s
47%
$162
$336
$415
$775
$1,186
$2,275
2019 Percent of Unit Sales
1%
15%
26%
9%
2%
Typical price in 2019
Holiday season thru Dec 12th. 30” TVs understated due to minimum price required of $150.
TV features that matter
most:
82% - Picture Quality
70% - Screen Size
50% - Audio Quality
Consumers are willing to spend around $854 for their next TV experiences.
But do they have the wall space?
16. HOLIDAY RECAP | ONLINE SPEND RESULTS | 2019
As TV Prices Go Down, Size Goes Up: 50-inch is No Longer A Big Step Up in Price
16
The price premium to jump from the 40 inch TVs to
the 50 inch TVs has fallen from nearly double (83%)
in 2017 to a mere 26% in 2019.
The change in price positioning makes the 50” class
of TVs clearly the largest share of unit sales during
the holiday season.
• Last year 50s edged 40s: 35% to 30%
Holiday season by year. 30” TVs
understated due to minimum price
required of $150.
2017 2018 2019
40 inch Class $350 $304 $330
50 inch Class $639 $468 $415
Premium 83% 54% 26%
17. HOLIDAY RECAP | THE SHOPPING MALL IN YOUR POCKET | 2019
Smartphones More of An Information Tool than Buying One
While smartphones contribute a third of all holiday spend, actual
buying metrics are quite different than shoppers coming from
desktops.
• Starting the buying process happens two-thirds as frequently on
smartphones as it does on desktops; 8.8 vs. 5.9 carts per 100 visits.
• Completing the buying process also lags desktop metrics; 3.0 vs. 5.9
checkouts per 100 visits.
• Resulting in a higher cart abandonment: 50% vs. 33%
• If carts converted as well, the difference would be additional $16B
in holiday spending
17
18. HOLIDAY RECAP | THE SHOPPING MALL IN YOUR POCKET | 2019
Smartphone Contribution to Revenue Varies By More than 2x Across Categories
18
Desktop still dominates in some categories:
• Consumer Electronics has lowest share of
revenue from smartphones: 18%. Also known
for high order value and low conversion.
Smartphone a player in more personal categories:
• Much higher shares in Apparel & Footwear (45%)
and Jewelry & Cosmetics (46%)
Data from Nov 1 to Dec 6, 2019 – other categories fall in between these examples.
19. HOLIDAY RECAP | THE SHOPPING MALL IN YOUR POCKET | 2019
Consumers Leverage Social and Email on their Smartphones
While social remains a small contributor to overall revenue (1-
2%), most of this revenue is driven from smartphones
• More than two-thirds of the dollars earned from social network
sales came via smartphones
Email is also useful for attracting consumers via smartphone
• 49% of total email revenue came from smartphones
Display, and to a lesser degree Affiliates/Partners, remain a
desktop oriented tactic from a revenue producing POV
19
20. HOLIDAY RECAP | THE SHOPPING MALL IN YOUR POCKET | 2019
Smartphones Contributed nearly $4 of $10 During Big Holiday Weekend
38%/59%
Share of Revenue and Visits from
smartphones. (+18%/+14% YoY,
respectively)
$2.9B/$3.0B
Smartphone revenue on Black
Friday/Cyber Monday
20
21. HOLIDAY RECAP | DAILY DEEP DIVES | 2019
Toy Category Topped Most Popular Purchases Over the Big Weekend
21
22. The four hours between 7pm and 11pm on Cyber Monday were
the most active period of the year
• These four hours recorded over $2.8B in sales, more than a
typical day in the holiday season ($2.3B)
• $3 in $10 came in those four hours (29%)
• Conversion rises steadily from 5AM throughout the day,
ending at twice the level normally seen as consumers hurried
to take advantage of deals.
HOLIDAY RECAP | DAILY DEEP DIVES | 2019
Consumers Shop Late on Cyber Monday to Take Advantage of Deals
22
23. HOLIDAY RECAP | DAVID VS. GOLIATH | 2019
Small Retailers Change Up Their Marketing Mix More than Large Ones
Compared to October, the Holiday Weekend shows a shift in how consumers arrive at a
retailer’s site
• While Small Retailers still rely on Natural Search for a quarter of their traffic they see more
Email visitors suggesting it may be a Holiday tactic rather than ongoing.
• Large retailers still benefit from direct traffic or bookmarks; given more shopping it isn’t
surprising to see Paid Search increase during the holidays
23
24. HOLIDAY RECAP | DAVID VS. GOLIATH | 2019
Shoppers Don’t Browse More Pages per Visit, They Just Spend More
Due to both conversion and increased order value, revenue per visit
follows total revenue trends. But that increases doesn't’ come from
browsing more of a site.
• Large are large in part because the generate more revenue from each and
every visit.
• While large retailers have a much wider assortment of items, on a per visit
basis, the number of pages visited per trip is remarkedly similar between
David and Goliath.
24
25. HOLIDAY RECAP | DAVID VS. GOLIATH | 2019
Revenue Per Minute Improves 30% During the Holiday Weekend
Consumers devote less time browsing for every dollar they spend during the
holiday weekend. Even post weekend they are more dedicated in their
shopping.
• Large retailers enjoy an advantage in productivity likely due to efficient shopping
experiences and knowledge that can accelerate “time to money”
• Time per dollar dropped 30 seconds among large retailers and a full minute
among small retailers
25
26. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
Demographics Help Explain Some Online Shopping
26
Slicing 3,000+ cities by various demographics sheds light on holiday shopping
.
• Big Cites vs. Smaller Cities
• Coastal Cities vs. Heartland
• Rural vs. More Urban Areas
• High vs. Low Household Income
• High vs. Medium/Low Financial Stressors
• High Diversity vs. Medium/Low Diversity
• Military bases are cities in their own right.
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
“Financial Stress” of a city based on Unemployment Rate, % without health Ins and % Below Poverty Line
Diversity or “New Americana” is based on ”One Race – White”, “Other Language” and “Native to State of Residence”.
27. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
Big Cities vs. Small Cities: The edge goes to the smaller cities
27
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
“Big Cities” are over 100k in population; “Small Cities” are less than that
Population 100k+ Population <100k
Revenue per Visit $4.35 $4.88
Avg. Order Value $156 $154
Conversion 2.8% 3.2%
Smartphone Share of Revenue 37% 35%
Development Index 104 96
Small cities have a significant advantage in terms of conversion.
28. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
Coastal Cities vs. The Heartland: The edge goes to the heartland
28
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
“Coastal Cities” are in counties on the ocean. “Heartland” are the 12 central states.
Heartland Coastal Cities
Revenue per Visit $4.71 $4.63
Avg. Order Value $154 $159
Conversion 3.1% 2.9%
Smartphone Share of Revenue 37% 35%
Development Index 101 96
Cities in the Heartland* have a slight edge in RPV; these shoppers offset smaller orders with better conversion.
29. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
Rural Areas vs. More Urban: Conflicting results
29
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
“Rural 40%+” are cities located in counties that are classified as having more than 40%
rural area.
Rural 40%+ Rural LT 40%
Revenue per Visit $5.03 $4.58
Avg. Order Value $151 $154
Conversion 3.9% 3.4%
Smartphone Share of Revenue 35% 36%
Development Index 71 102
While rural counties produce higher revenue per visit due to stronger conversions, they are less likely to shop in the first place.
30. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
High Income vs. Lower Income Markets: Income suggests a clear winner
30
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
Based on median household income of a city.
HH Income >$75k HH Income <$40k
Revenue per Visit $4.81 $4.49
Avg. Order Value $160 $149
Conversion 3.0% 3.0%
Smartphone Share of Revenue 34% 37%
Development Index 134 92
Income level equates with online shopping, particularly in terms of average order value.
31. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
More vs. Less Financial Stressors: Less stress the higher the value of a visit.
31
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
Stress based on combination of unemployment, lack of health insurance and living
below poverty line.
More Stressors Fewer Stressors
Revenue per Visit $4.26 $4.78
Avg. Order Value $153 $156
Conversion 2.8% 3.1%
Smartphone Share of Revenue 39% 34%
Development Index 101 99
Uncertainty due to financial pressures doesn’t preclude online shopping, just more cautious as evident by low conversion.
32. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
Mixed vs. Traditional Markets: Highest RPV from traditional markets.
32
.
Note: Based on cities mapped to ACS or 3rd party population sources.
Segment based on “Other Language at Home”, “Race – non-white” and “Not native to
the state currently reside in”
New Americana Traditional
Revenue per Visit $4.29 $5.13
Avg. Order Value $157 $154
Conversion 2.7% 3.3%
Smartphone Share of Revenue 37% 35%
Development Index 111 86
While less valuable per visit, residents of more mixed cities do shop online.
33. HOLIDAY RECAP | SLICES OF LIFE | 2019
Military Base Personnel More Selective During their Holiday Shopping
33
Average Order Value during the season quite similar (just 6%
different)
However, converting a visit to an order is much lower (-22%)
reducing the revenue per visit metric.
Top three retail categories orders from military bases mimic
overall online shopping with a shift in spend toward consumer
electronics and away from Apparel & Footwear
1. Apparel & Footwear: 29% vs. 35%
2. Major Chains: 27% vs. 29%
3. Consumer Electronics: 17% vs. 14%
Data: November 1 thru December 28th
Major Chains include mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, department stores.
Military
Bases
Average US
City
RPV $2.97 $4.32
Conversion 2.9% 3.7%
AOV $135 $143
Key Shopping Metrics (US Holiday Season 2019)