The forecast: Holiday ecommerce sales will rise 14.4% this year, with online channels comprising 18.4% of all spending this November and December.

With inventory constraints top of mind, consumers will likely start their holiday shopping early. We estimate that November sales excluding Cyber Five will grow 15%.

Dive deeper: Several categories are driving this growth.

• Apparel and accessories will lead the pack with 25.5% growth, fueled by the return of in-person events. Discretionary categories like jewelry, luxury, and accessories will make a big comeback this year.
• Consumer electronics will be the second-fastest-growing category at 12.5%, fueled by new devices, such as the iPhone 13 and Amazon Fire TV Omni Series, and strong demand for wearables. Meanwhile, categories like computers and monitors may experience some fatigue. Best Buy cautioned in its August earnings call that the computing category may experience low demand but is seeing growth in other areas like home theater and appliances.
• While personal care and health continue to see strong demand this year, the 12.1% growth in cosmetics and beauty will elevate this category. In particular, Amazon's Holiday Beauty Hall event in October likely sparked early deals and could drive further demand.